Belarusian President Says Nation Lacks Potash for US Deal

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated on Monday that his country does not possess sufficient potash to meet demands for a potential deal with the United States.

Lukashenko said all current potash volumes are already contracted. Belarus produces approximately 6 million metric tons annually, while the United States imports 5.6 million metric tons each year. Canada, the world's largest potash producer, produces 15 million metric tons annually. Lukashenko indicated that for Belarus to supply large volumes to the US, Washington must first unblock $43-$44 million in Belarusian state funds frozen in Citibank since 2022.

Lukashenko had said earlier this month, on September 11, that Belarus supplied the US with potash for the first time since 2021. This statement followed an announcement by US President Donald Trump on Monday that the United States is working on a massive deal to purchase potash fertilizer from Belarus. Trump claimed the Belarusian potash would be substantially less expensive than current Canadian offerings, calling it very good news for their farmers and ranchers.

This proposed deal emerges amid an escalating trade dispute between Washington and Ottawa. Canada supplies between 80% and 90% of US potash needs. Sanctions on Belarusian fertilizer, imposed after the government suppressed 2020 election protests, were lifted in March. Further sanctions were introduced in 2022 due to Belarus's support for Russia's war against Ukraine. Critics have pointed to a perceived double standard, noting Trump's pursuit of Belarusian potash while signing a bill to punish India for purchasing Russian energy.

Evan Feigenbaum, a former administration official, highlighted this contradiction. Potash is a critical agricultural input, and Canada, Russia, and Belarus are major global producers. Logistical challenges exist for shipping Belarusian potash, as Belarus is landlocked and Lithuania terminated its transit agreement. In 2021, Belarus shipped about 700,000 tons to the US, compared to Canada's more than 10 million tons last year.