Ethiopian Federal Army, Tigray Forces Renew Fighting, Shattering 2022 Peace Deal

Intensified fighting between Ethiopia’s federal army and forces from the northern region of Tigray has raised fears that the 2022 peace agreement could collapse.

The escalation came days after seven armed groups from across Ethiopia formed a new alliance seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. Tigrayan forces seized three airports controlled by the federal government on Wednesday, and fighting also broke out in the neighboring regions of Amhara and Afar. Ethiopian Airlines has suspended all flights to Tigray following the airport seizures.

Internet and call services have been disrupted in Tigray, leading to panic buying among residents. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Turk, expressed deep alarm on September 25, warning of severe harm to civilians and citing reports of Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) airstrikes hitting five Tigray schools on September 22, causing deaths and injuries.

A mortar strike on September 23 in Kobo town in Amhara, reportedly by the ENDF, also resulted in civilian deaths. Both sides blame each other for instigating the latest flare-up; Tigray’s regional government stated federal forces attacked first, while Getachew Reda, an adviser to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, said the TPLF launched an “all-out offensive.”

The renewed violence shatters the 2022 peace agreement, which ended a two-year war estimated to have killed around 600,000 people. Smaller clashes between Tigrayan and federal forces began near Ethiopia’s border with Sudan on August 1, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). The TPLF, once the dominant force in Ethiopia's governing coalition for nearly three decades, saw its influence sharply reduced when Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in 2018. Forced recruitment by both TPLF and government forces, including children, has been reported.