Renewed Violence in Ethiopia's Tigray Wounds Dozens, Raises Regional War Fears

Renewed violence in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region has left dozens of civilians, including children, wounded since fighting broke out between Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan rebels on September 23.

Children received treatment for leg wounds and limb loss in a Tigrayan hospital on Tuesday after heavy shelling. A drone strike on a displacement camp in western Tigray on Sunday killed eight people, including a child and an aid worker. Federal forces have pushed back the rebel offensive and seized the Tigrayan capital, Mekelle, this weekend after Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) leaders and troops abandoned the city.

Members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force were stationed at Mekelle's Alula Aba Nega International Airport on Tuesday. The renewed fighting raises fears of a humanitarian crisis and a return to the devastating civil war that killed an estimated 600,000 people between 2020 and 2022. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was sworn in for a new five-year mandate on Monday, reiterating his will to work toward giving landlocked Ethiopia direct access to the Red Sea. This remark risks exacerbating tensions with neighboring Eritrea, with whom Ethiopia has been at odds over control of Eritrea's port of Assab.

Analyst Abdurahman Sayed of the Horn of Africa Center for Regional Integration believes Eritrea faces an imminent threat of entering the war in Tigray due to Ethiopia's intentions regarding Assab. The International Crisis Group warned northern Ethiopia faces a dangerous descent back into war. The EU called for immediate de-escalation on Monday, urging parties to refrain from actions or rhetoric that could heighten tensions.

The latest major escalation began September 23 when Tigrayan forces seized federally administered airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire, according to the African Union. An offensive also opened fronts in Amhara and Afar. Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats on October 1, citing national security threats, to which Eritrea responded by severing diplomatic relations. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of backing an opposition alliance led by the TPLF, an accusation all three countries reject.