Crude Oil Exports From Strait of Hormuz Return to Pre-War Levels

Crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz have largely returned to levels seen before the outbreak of the Iran war, which began on February 28 with US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

At least 16.5 million barrels per day (bpd) left the region in September, according to figures from global trade intelligence firm Kpler, equaling the pre-war average excluding Iran. This figure is 10.5 million bpd higher than the monthly average for March, during the first weeks of the conflict. Investment bank JP Morgan reported Middle East crude exports in September were at 98 percent of pre-war levels.

Commodities analytics firm Kpler also reported Saudi oil exports were at average levels for 2025. Since the conflict began, Iran has sought to exert its authority on the strait and has at times declared the strategic waterway closed. However, Iran’s control appears to have declined in recent weeks as oil exporters found workarounds. About 40 percent of the region’s crude is now transported without transiting the strait, compared with 17 percent before the war, through Saudi and Emirati pipelines.

Pipeline exports and ship-to-ship transfers are among the methods being used, and the US military continues to escort some vessels. While crude levels have risen, flows of refined products such as diesel remain constrained, pushing prices higher. European Union figures published on October 1 showed diesel pump prices at record levels. Iran is considering a US counterproposal on a ceasefire and the reopening of Hormuz.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi described daily military conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, stating they have been hitting small ships and preventing them from passing.