India's GDP Growth of 7.8% Sparks Debate Over Data Revisions

The Story

India's economy reported a 7.8% GDP growth for the April-June quarter, exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's 7% forecast and prompting celebration from the BJP. However, the Congress party and former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg have raised questions about the data's integrity. Garg argued that revisions to previous GDP figures, specifically a Rs 6 lakh crore downward adjustment for the first quarter of the previous fiscal year under the old 2011-12 series, artificially inflate the current growth rate. He stated that if the old Rs 86 lakh crore number for Q1 FY26 had remained, nominal GDP growth this year would be around 2.6% with real growth near zero. Statistics and Programme Implementation Secretary Saurabh Garg defended the 7.8% figure, rejecting claims of data manipulation. He stated the growth is supported by real economy indicators such as electricity generation (9% growth), cement and steel output (8% growth), and services sectors like hotels and tourism (15-20% growth). He also pointed to electrical equipment growth of 27% and capital goods expansion of 12%, with private consumption expenditure near 8%. The controversy stems from the government's revision of the GDP base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23, which led to changes in GDP and growth data for previous quarters. Critics argue that using the earlier, higher figure as a base would result in a lower growth rate than the reported 7.8%.

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