Study Finds European Wildfire Area Could Nearly Triple by Century's End

New research finds that wildfires could burn nearly three times as much of Europe each year by the end of the century.

A study published Thursday by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) concludes that under a high-emissions pathway, the annual burned area in Europe could rise by approximately 192 percent. Researchers arrived at these figures by comparing projected averages for 2070-2100 against a modeled 2000-2030 baseline. They ran two separate fire models across five climate projections.

Maik Billing, a PIK researcher and lead author of the study, stated that climate change is driving up fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe. He added that if global temperatures rise by approximately 3.6°C, fires would become much more prevalent, including in areas that have not experienced many fires to date, such as western Germany and the Netherlands.

The study projects the Mediterranean region would be the worst hit, with other local wildfire hotspots likely to emerge in the foothills of mountainous areas like the Alps, Pyrenees, and Carpathians. A second modeling effort, developed by co-authors from the Senckenberg institute, suggests that human prevention efforts could reduce burned areas. Improvements in prevention, detection, and firefighting could reduce the burned area by 92 percent in a world with 1.8°C warming and by 72 percent in a world that is 3.6°C hotter.

Senckenberg scientist Thomas Hickler stated, "We need to invest more." The warning follows weeks of devastating wildfires across Europe this summer, fueled by dry conditions and a historically hot summer. Over 600,000 hectares have burned so far this fire season, which is set to become the third-worst on record for the EU, behind 2025 and 2022.