Conservatives Leapfrog Reform UK in New Poll
The Story
The Conservatives have overtaken Reform UK to become the main opposition party to Labour for the first time this Parliament, according to a new Ipsos poll.
The survey found 35 percent of voters now view the Tories as the main opposition, three percent ahead of Reform UK on 32 percent. This marks a turnaround for the Conservatives, who trailed Reform UK by 10 points in August and 28 points in May. The poll of over 2,200 people was conducted between October 9-13, 2026.
Ipsos UK Director of Politics Keiran Pedley attributed the shift to Prime Minister Andy Burnham's arrival and recent struggles for Reform UK, noting a "Burnham bounce" that makes Labour more likely to be seen as the largest party after the next general election. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are making progress in appealing to voters on the right.
The poll also showed the Greens in third place with 5 percent, ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 4 percent. For voters who supported Labour in 2024, there was a change in their outlook, though specific details were not provided.
The Spread
The coverage 10 sources
- Far LeftNovara MediaA Motion, a Meltdown, and an Andy Burnham-Shaped Opportunity (opens the publisher’s site)
- Far LeftTribune (UK)Burnham is Attacking Local Councils to Defend Israel (opens the publisher’s site)
- Center-LeftThe National (Scotland)Wife of Andy Burnham's top aide backs Palestine Action in shock intervention (opens the publisher’s site)
- CenterBelfast TelegraphWe’re not backing away from Jackdaw and Rosebank decisions, says Andy Burnham (opens the publisher’s site)
- Centeri NewsThe poll that shows how the Badenoch bounce is punishing Reform (opens the publisher’s site)
- CenterThe Herald (Scotland)Sir Alex Ferguson would make 'effective' mayor of Aberdeen says PM (opens the publisher’s site)
- CenterThe Conversation UKCould the UK actually split? Experts explain the legal route for pro-independence leaders (opens the publisher’s site)
- Center-RightThe TimesChancellor backs Heathrow third runway despite Andy Burnham’s hesitation (opens the publisher’s site)
- RightDaily MailAndy Burnham urges Scots to 'move beyond' independence bid and 'end the old politics of conflict'... at the same time as he's reviving Brexit rows (opens the publisher’s site)
- RightGB NewsRift on the Right gifts Andy Burnham another by-election victory as Rupert Lowe 'stitch-up' deepens (opens the publisher’s site)