James Talarico Leads Ken Paxton In Texas Senate Race; Democrats Spend

Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, with an Emerson College poll showing Talarico at 47 percent to Paxton's 46 percent.

This one-point lead echoes Ted Cruz's lead over Colin Allred in Emerson's final 2024 Texas poll, where Cruz led 48 to 47 percent before winning by 8.5 points 13 days later. Talarico's lead in major polling averages is three to four points, which is smaller than the more than four-point miss Texas polls produced two years ago.

Forecasts suggest the contest between Talarico and Paxton could be the most expensive Senate race in history, potentially topping half a billion dollars. Talarico attended a fundraising event in Manhattan on Monday night with former Senator Sherrod Brown, the Human Rights Campaign PAC, and actor Robert De Niro. Tickets for the event topped $27,000. Talarico's campaign has described him as a proud capitalist to distance himself from hardliners in his party, despite tapping into Mayor Zohran Mamdani's fundraising network, which is associated with Democratic Socialists of America.

Some Republican politicians have expressed concerns about Paxton's nomination, with North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis calling it a colossal mistake. Former George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove stated the race would be over if John Cornyn were the nominee. Former state Republican representative Glenn Rogers appeared in a super PAC ad supporting Talarico, stating he will never support Ken Paxton.

Paxton's past scandals have hindered his fundraising. Talarico, described as young, charismatic, and devoutly Christian, has positioned himself as a progressive-leaning Christian legislator. He once described God as nonbinary, a stance that earned him the nickname "Tala-freak-o" from Republican opponents. Talarico states that when Jesus healed the sick, he did not ask for a deductible, and when he fights for universal healthcare, he does so on biblical grounds.

Talarico's campaign used a tweet to claim Paxton said the Uvalde shooting was part of "God's plan," pairing it with a photo of Paxton and images from Robb Elementary.