Italy's Population Projected to Shrink by 4 Million by 2050
FlatRigor 568 sources
The Story
Italy's population is projected to shrink by almost 4 million people by 2050, according to new projections released Monday by the national statistics bureau ISTAT. The country's resident population is expected to fall to 55 million by 2050, from 58.9 million at the start of 2025. ISTAT further projects a decline to 45.8 million by 2080, representing over 13 million fewer residents than today. This demographic shift, driven by a long-running decline in births and a rapidly aging population, poses fresh challenges for Italy's economy and welfare system. Births have declined steadily since 2008, falling to around 355,000 last year, the lowest figure since Italy's unification in 1861. ISTAT projects annual births to remain broadly stable until 2030 before falling further to 335,000 by 2050. Deaths are expected to rise from about 652,000 last year to a peak of 869,000 in 2058, as Italy's large post-war baby boom generation reaches old age. The share of Italians aged 65 or over is expected to jump to 34.5% in 2050 from 24.7% in 2025. Concurrently, the proportion of people of working age (15 to 64 years old) will fall to 55.3% from 63.4%. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni made boosting the birth rate a government priority after taking office in 2022, but her efforts have produced scant results. The demographic decline will be uneven, with poorer southern Italy forecast to suffer the steepest losses.
The Spread
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What they agree on
- Italy's national statistics bureau ISTAT projected on Monday that the country's population will shrink by almost 4 million people by 2050.
- The resident population is expected to fall from 58.9 million in early 2025 to 55 million by 2050, and further to 45.8 million by 2080.
- This decline is attributed to a long-running decrease in births and an aging population.
- The share of Italians aged 65 or over is expected to increase by 2050, while the working-age population will decrease.
- ISTAT warned that these demographic changes will pose new challenges to Italy's economic system and welfare.
Where they split
- ANSA (English) provides specific figures on the projected decrease in couples with children and the increase in childless couples, details not universally included in other reports.
- The Independent and Reuters emphasize the impact of the population decline on the sustainability of Italy's economy and welfare system.
- Some articles, like The Times of India, focus more broadly on the overall population shrinkage, while others, such as The Straits Times, detail the uneven decline across different regions of Italy.
- Most articles mention Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's efforts to boost the birth rate, noting that her initiatives have produced scant results.
Source Perspectives
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