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October 16-28, 1962

The Cuban Missile Crisis

For thirteen days, one Soviet submarine officer was the only thing between humanity and nuclear war

Cecil Stoughton, White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

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The story as it is usually told happens in two rooms. A cabinet room in Washington and an office in Moscow, thirteen days, two men, and a blink.

The moment that came closest to ending it was neither of those rooms. It was two hundred feet under the Sargasso Sea, in a submarine that had been out of contact with Moscow for days, and it turned on one officer refusing.

And the thing that makes the whole crisis look different is a number that Washington did not learn for forty years. There were already a hundred and sixty two nuclear warheads on the island.

Scene 1Thirteen minutes

The fourteenth of October. A U-2 flies over western Cuba and photographs construction near San Cristobal.

The photographs show launch sites for Soviet medium range missiles. From there, a warhead reaches Washington in thirteen minutes.

The President is briefed before breakfast on the sixteenth. By midday fourteen men are sitting in the Cabinet Room with one instruction: find a way to get them out.

One of the first voices in the room argues for airstrikes immediately. The President's brother passes him a note saying he now understands how the Japanese commander felt planning Pearl Harbor.

Scene 2The word

They argue for six days before the public is told anything.

The Joint Chiefs are unanimous. Strike the sites from the air, then invade. Their chairman tells the President that anything less is appeasement, and uses Munich as the comparison, to a man whose father had been the ambassador in London during Munich.

Kennedy takes a middle path and a careful word. Not a blockade, because a blockade is an act of war in international law. A quarantine.

His own defence secretary makes the argument that the missiles change nothing strategically, because the Soviet Union can already reach American cities from home. What they change is the appearance of it, ninety miles offshore, and appearance is what the crisis is about.

Scene 3Black Saturday

On the twenty fourth the Soviet ships approaching the line stop or turn back, and that is the moment everyone remembers.

The problem is that the missiles already ashore keep going up. By the twenty sixth, American intelligence believes two dozen launchers are operational.

The twenty seventh is the day everything happens at once.

A U-2 is shot down over Cuba by a Soviet surface to air missile. The pilot, Rudolf Anderson, is killed. Under the rules the Americans set themselves, that is the trigger for striking back.

At the same time, in the Sargasso Sea, American destroyers are dropping practice depth charges on a Soviet submarine to force it up. The boat is B fifty nine. It has been submerged for days, the air is foul, the temperature inside is over fifty degrees, and it has heard nothing from Moscow.

It is carrying a torpedo with a nuclear warhead. The captain concludes that war has started above him and orders it armed.

Soviet regulations on that boat require three officers to agree. Two do. The third, the flotilla commander, refuses, and argues that surfacing and being humiliated is better than starting a nuclear war.

His name was Vasili Arkhipov. The submarine surfaced.

Nobody in Washington knew that had happened. Nobody in Washington knew it for another forty years.

It came out at a conference in Havana, in two thousand and two, when the men who had been on that boat were in a room with the men who had been in that cabinet.

Kennedy confers with advisors in the White House Cabinet Room during the thirteen days. The ExComm group met almost continuously, debating options from diplomatic protest to full-scale invasion.
Kennedy confers with advisors in the White House Cabinet Room during the thirteen days. The ExComm group met almost continuously, debating options from diplomatic protest to full-scale invasion.Cecil Stoughton, White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (October 1962)

Scene 4The part that was not announced

That same evening the President's brother meets the Soviet ambassador privately at the Justice Department, and gives him two things.

A deadline. Remove the missiles or they will be removed by force.

And an offer. American Jupiter missiles will come out of Turkey within six months. But if the Soviet Union ever says that this was part of the bargain, the deal is off and the United States will deny it.

On the twenty eighth, Radio Moscow announces the missiles are going home. The public version of events is that the Soviet Union backed down and the United States conceded nothing.

The Jupiters came out of Turkey in April.

John Kennedy said this to an aide on the worst day of it.

John F. Kennedy · Remark to aide Kenny O'Donnell · October 27, 1962

“It is insane and very sad that two men sitting on opposite sides of the world should be able to decide to bring an end to civilization.”

The CIA photograph that triggered the crisis. Medium-range ballistic missile launch pads under construction are visible, along with missile transporters and support equipment.
The CIA photograph that triggered the crisis. Medium-range ballistic missile launch pads under construction are visible, along with missile transporters and support equipment.Unknown Lockheed U-2 pilot, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (October 14, 1962)

Five accounts

Five accounts, and the one that is almost always missing is the one whose territory this was.

  1. The American room
  2. The Soviet calculation
  3. The Cubans
  4. The deterrence theorists
  5. The declassified record
Aerial photograph of a Soviet cargo ship with canvas-covered missile transporters on deck, taken by U.S. Navy aircraft during the withdrawal. Ship-deck inspection was substituted after Castro refused to allow UN inspectors on Cuban soil.
Aerial photograph of a Soviet cargo ship with canvas-covered missile transporters on deck, taken by U.S. Navy aircraft during the withdrawal. Ship-deck inspection was substituted after Castro refused to allow UN inspectors on Cuban soil.USN, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (November 1962)

The turn

And what each of them is leaving out.

  1. American

    The American account leaves out the deal. For thirty years it was a story about nerve, told by people who knew that a trade had been made and had agreed never to say so.

    From the record
    Bay of Pigs invasion and Operation Mongoose as provocations that motivated Soviet deployment
    Jupiter missiles in Turkey as the mirror image of Soviet missiles in Cuba
    Cuba excluded from all negotiations about its own territory
    Kennedy's domestic political calculations in an election year
  2. Soviet

    The Soviet account presents the deployment as symmetry, which it was, and skips how much of it was a gamble on not being seen, and what it meant to move that many warheads onto an island whose government did not have a say over their use.

    From the record
    Deception of Operation Anadyr and its violation of Khrushchev's assurances to Kennedy
    Castro's exclusion from negotiations and his fury at the withdrawal
    Khrushchev's domestic political damage and eventual removal
    The 162 tactical nuclear warheads deployed without Washington's knowledge
  3. Cuban

    The Cuban account is the most morally clear and the least in control. It is an argument about sovereignty made by the one party that was not at the table when the thing was settled.

    From the record
    Castro's Armageddon letter urging first strike, which would have destroyed Cuba itself
    Soviet tactical nuclear warheads that Cuba had no control over
    Cuba's subsequent military dependence on the Soviet Union for three decades
    Domestic repression accelerated under the justification of external threat
  4. Nuclear Deterrence Theory

    The deterrence account is a theory that survives by absorbing its own near misses. A framework that has to count Arkhipov as evidence of stability is doing a lot of work.

    From the record
    Human experience of the crisis (public fear, Cuban civilian perspective)
    Moral dimensions of threatening the annihilation of millions
    Third World perspective on superpower nuclear brinkmanship
    Domestic political pressures on both Kennedy and Khrushchev
  5. Declassified Revisionist

    And the declassified account has the advantage every later reader has. It knows how it came out. Nobody in those rooms did.

    From the record
    The genuine difficulty of Kennedy's position and the courage required to resist military pressure
    Khrushchev's sincere desire to protect Cuba from another Bay of Pigs
    The institutional reforms that did follow and did reduce future risk
    Castro's agency and strategic logic, not merely his radicalism

Close

The direct line between Washington and Moscow was installed the following summer, because the crisis had been conducted partly through public broadcasts and partly through a journalist.

A test ban treaty followed in nineteen sixty three, and a non proliferation treaty five years later.

Vasili Arkhipov went back to the Soviet navy, was promoted, retired as a vice admiral, and died in nineteen ninety eight, before almost anybody outside his own service knew what he had done.

He was not being brave. By his own account he was following the rules, which happened to require three signatures, and he did not give his.

The record

By the numbers

Span
13 days
Killed
1Major Rudolf Anderson, U-2 pilot shot down October 27
Displaced
100MEntire world population at nuclear risk; estimated…
Place
Cuba

Key figures

  • John F. KennedyPresident of the United States, chaired ExComm deliberations1917 to 1963
  • Nikita KhrushchevFirst Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, ordered missile deployment1894 to 1971
  • Fidel CastroPrime Minister of Cuba, urged Soviet first strike1926 to 2016
  • Vasili ArkhipovSoviet Navy flotilla commander, vetoed nuclear torpedo launch on submarine B-591926 to 1998
  • Robert F. KennedyU.S. Attorney General, led secret back-channel negotiations with Dobrynin1925 to 1968
  • Anatoly DobryninSoviet Ambassador to the United States, back-channel intermediary1919 to 2010
  • Curtis LeMayU.S. Air Force Chief of Staff, advocated airstrikes and invasion1906 to 1990
  • Adlai StevensonU.S. Ambassador to the UN, confronted Soviet delegation with U-2 photographs1900 to 1965

Primary sources

Dean Rusk · Remark to McGeorge Bundy, October 24, 1962 · October 24, 1962

“We're eyeball to eyeball, and I think the other fellow just blinked.”

Nikita Khrushchev · Letter to Bertrand Russell, October 24, 1962 · October 24, 1962

“I will tell you one thing. Nuclear war is out of the question. We're not lunatics.”

Fidel Castro · Public address, Havana, October 23, 1962 · October 23, 1962

“If they want this kind of confrontation, well, OK. We are ready.”

John F. Kennedy · Remark to aide Kenny O'Donnell, October 27, 1962 · October 27, 1962

“It is insane and very sad that two men sitting on opposite sides of the world should be able to decide to bring an end to civilization.”